Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaimed $75,000 this week, erasing all losses since the Iran war began — and according to Anthony Pompliano, that price action just proved something historic.
In a wide-ranging conversation with his son John on The Pomp Podcast, Pompliano argued that Bitcoin has officially “transcended” its identity as a risk-on tech proxy, decoupled from equities, and is now trading as a neutral, non-sovereign store of value in a world at war.
The War Trade Broke Every Prediction
When the U.S. began bombing Iran, the consensus trade was textbook: stocks up on defense spending, oil up on supply disruption, bonds down on inflation fears, and Bitcoin down as a risk asset.
Every single one of those predictions was wrong — except oil.
Bitcoin outperformed every major asset class during active conflict, Pompliano said: “If you need to move money around the world during conflict, Bitcoin becomes interesting.”
The Deflation Thesis: Four Forces Bigger Than Oil
While mainstream economists warned of runaway war inflation, Pompliano’s proprietary “True Inflation” indicator tells a different story.
On April 2nd, True Inflation revised sharply downward from 1.7% to 1.2%.
The April headline Producer Price Inflation print confirmed the thesis. Wall Street consensus expected 4.6%. The actual print came in at 4.0%.
Pompliano attributes the structural disinflationary pressure to four macro forces that dwarf the temporary oil shock:
- Tariffs: Deflationary via demand destruction and supply chain reshoring.
- Deportations: Deflationary via reduced consumer demand.
- Artificial Intelligence: Deflationary via productivity gains and cost compression.
- Robotics: Deflationary via labor cost reduction and manufacturing efficiency.
Wall Street’s ETF War Is a Persistent Bitcoin Bid
The most structurally bullish development for Bitcoin is the institutional arms race now fully underway on Wall Street, Pompliano argued.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) launched its spot Bitcoin ETF, calling it the most successful product launch in the firm’s history. BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK), whose iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) remains the most successful ETF launch in Wall Street history, announced a new income-generating Bitcoin fund.
Fidelity, VanEck, Bitwise, and ARK Invest (NYSE:ARKK) are all competing aggressively for assets.
“There’s a war going on on Wall Street and they’re all competing over who can get more assets into their ETF — and I love it,” Pompliano said.
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) Chairman Michael Saylor continues to aggressively accumulate, adding to the supply squeeze as ETF inflows absorb available Bitcoin on the open market.
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