Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) bottoming process is advancing but not yet complete, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode wrote on Wednesday, identifying three signals that still need to confirm before a genuine recovery can begin.
Five Months Below Key Cost Levels Is Historically Rare
Bitcoin has traded below both the True Market Mean at $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $72,200 for roughly five months, one of the longest stretches of deep value in Bitcoin’s history.
Price bounced from $58,300 to $64,400 over the past week, but that recovery still leaves it firmly below both levels and structurally exposed to any fresh negative catalyst.
Glassnode noted that prolonged accumulation at such a discount has historically served as the foundation for cyclical bottoms.
The report places the lower bound of the current bear market range near the $53,000 Realized Price and argues that investors cannot rule out that level.
Signal One Missing: Long-Term Holder Capitulation Hasn’t Cooled Yet
Long-term holders who bought near the cycle top and held through months of losses now realize 43% of all on-chain losses, up from just 15% in February.
Their daily realized losses peaked at $280 million, the highest reading since December 2022.
That number hasn’t dropped yet. Every previous bottom in Bitcoin’s history saw this metric spike and then compress meaningfully before prices recovered.
Until the daily loss figure starts declining, Glassnode said the path toward a recovery remains blocked by a steady wave of frustrated sellers exiting their underwater positions.
Signal Two Missing: ETF Outflows Haven’t Stopped
The 30-day average of daily ETF net outflows peaked at $193 million per day in early June and has since cooled to $88.9 million per day, a positive direction but still a net bleeding state.
Daily ETF trading volume now runs between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below October 2025’s peak of $4.4 billion per day.
Institutional demand cannot be considered stable until outflows return to neutral and trading volume expands at the same time.
Right now, neither metric meets that requirement.
Signal Three Missing: Options Market Still Prices Downside
The put/call ratio sits at 0.56, meaning traders hold roughly two bullish call options for every bearish put.
That sounds positive, but the cost of buying downside protection remains high across every expiry date, meaning traders are paying up to hedge against further drops even while holding long positions.
Bitcoin also trades about 6% below $66,000, the price level where most of the options contracts expire worthless and where price tends to gravitate heading into expiry dates.
Getting back above $66,000 and holding it would be the first sign this dynamic is shifting.
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